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The approximate current price of oil is approximately $90.50 perbarrel. Note that this is for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI)crude oil price. The price of Brent crude oil is approximately$110.00 per barrel. For all intents and purposes, the best thing isto keep it simple here and focus on the WTI crude oil price.
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There are a number of various reasons that could be said herebut there are several key themes that are applicable to thissituation. These include the following:
- Geopolitical concerns (i.e. violence in oil-producingcountries, elections, etc.).
- Natural disasters which could affect supplyanddemand (i.e. pipeline ruptures and refinery closures due tohurricanes, etc.),
- Supply and demand fundamentals (which can dictate pricesome of the time),
- Supply disruptions due to equipment malfunctions (i.e.refinery closures due to fire or leaking pipes, seasonalmaintenance, etc.), and
- Speculation (which is one of the more common reasonswhy oil tends to rise and fall more than anything in thislist)..
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Moving on to the third part of the question, Since oil is one ofthe most precious resources that we use on a daily basis, news forthe good or bad can change the price in an instant. Plus, with theadvent of electronic trading, the frequency of trading contractsthat change hands is much quicker than the old days of papershifting. Add in the fact that a news headline could cause a priceto spike up or down in a matter of minutes adds even moreuncertainty to the mix.
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The last piece of the problem here asks one to think about theconsequences that may occur if one is optimistic about the price ofoil.
In other words, one could have three (3) paths that the price ofoil could go over time. The lower priced option would be theoptimistic level (and many people would love one for keeping thistrack). The normal route could factor in an average increase rateover time which may be measured by a cost index (as well as theother two options mentioned). The final route could be apessimistic projection in which the price of oil would rise themost over time. Having these three (3) paths and not just one is agood answer to mention here because with the variability that wasmentioned above, it is not very easy to conclude where it willgo.
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